Asociación entre la Temperatura Ambiental y Temperatura Superficial del Mar sobre la Aparición de Casos de Ciguatera en el Departamento de San Andrés y Providencia
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
La ciguatera causa un impacto a la salud y a la economía, producto de su significativa morbilidad, pérdida de días de trabajo, días de hospitalización y en algunos casos la muerte; además afecta la economía de los países caribeños, que en su mayoría dependen de la pesca y del turismo. Cambios inducidos por el clima se han atribuido ser los principales impulsores de la estimulación, distribución e intensificación de dinoflagelados causantes de ciguatera. Este estudio pretende estimar la asociación entre la temperatura (media, mínima absoluta, máxima absoluta, media de mínimas, media de máximas y la temperatura superficial del mar media) sobre la aparición de casos de ciguatera en San Andrés y Providencia. Inicialmente se realizó un análisis descriptivo de los casos y brotes notificados al Sistema de Vigilancia en Salud pública compatibles con la definición de caso establecida en el Protocolo de vigilancia de intoxicaciones por toxinas de algas marinas y se obtuvieron las incidencias para el departamento. Se realizó análisis de varianza y de covarianza (intervalo de confianza del 95%) para identificar asociaciones entre brotes, incidencias y las diferentes temperaturas. Adicionalmente se determinó el coeficiente de correlación de Pearson entre dos series de tiempo (temperaturas Vs. brotes y temperaturas Vs. incidencias) y el intervalo de confianza del 95% con Bootstrap para cada una. Se identificaron 101 casos, 21 brotes y 14 casos aislados. La mayor frecuencia de brotes fue producida por barracuda y jurel. El 53% de los casos pertenecieron al sexo masculino, el grupo de edad mas afectado fue 30 a 44 años; el período de incubación entre 30 minutos y 24 horas. Hogares y restaurantes fueron los lugares de ocurrencia de los casos. Se estableció una incidencia media anual de 17.4 casos de ciguatera por 100 000 habitantes. En el ANOVA no se identificaron diferencias significativas entre promedios mensuales y anuales de los brotes ni de las incidencias de casos de ciguatera. Para el ANACOVA se encontraron significativas para brotes las temperaturas ambiental máxima absoluta (p = 0.0254) y la ambiental mínima absoluta con dos meses de retraso (p = 0.0190). Para incidencias se encontró significativa la temperatura superficial del mar media con dos meses de retraso (p = 0.0387). En el análisis de Bootstrap para brotes se encontró significativa la temperatura ambiental máxima absoluta, la cual muestra una correlación de 0.335 (IC 95%: 0.063 – 0.560) y en el análisis para incidencias se encontró significativa la temperatura ambiental media de máximas, la cual muestra una correlación de 0.181 (IC 95%: -0.181 – 0.474). Se recomienda realizar este tipo de análisis con otras variables que puedan influir en la presencia de casos.
The Ciguatera impact the sector health and sector economic, product of significant morbidity, loss of work days, days of hospitalization and in some cases death; It also affects the economy of the Caribbean countries, who mostly depend on fishing and tourism. Climate-induced changes have been attributed to be the main drivers of the stimulation, distribution and intensification of dinoflagellates that cause of ciguatera. This study aimed to estimate the association between temperature (mean, absolute minimum, maximum absolute, minimum average, average maximum and average sea surface temperature) over the emergence of cases of ciguatera in San Andrés and Providencia. Initially was a descriptive analysis of the cases and outbreaks reported to the public health surveillance system compatible, with the case definition established in Protocol of monitoring of poisoning by toxins from marine algae and issues for the Department were. Analysis of variance and Covariance (95% confidence interval) to identify associations between outbreaks, incidents and different temperatures. Additionally the coefficient of Pearson correlation between two time series was determined (temperature vs. outbreaks and temperatures vs. incidents) and the confidence interval of 95% with Bootstrap for each. 101 cases, 21 outbreaks and 14 cases were identified. The increased frequency of outbreaks was produced by barracuda and jurel. 53% of the cases belonged to the male sex, the age group most affected was 30 to 44 years; the period of incubation between 30 minutes and 24 hours. Homes and restaurants were the places of occurrence of cases. Established an annual average incidence of 17.4 cases of ciguatera poisoning per 100 000 inhabitants. In ANOVA we identified no significant differences between monthly and annual averages of outbreaks or cases of ciguatera poisoning incident. For the ANACOVA temperatures are found significant for outbreaks environmental maximum absolute (p = 0.0254) and the environmental absolute minimum two months of delay (p = 0.0190). For the incidents was found significant the half with two months of delay sea surface temperature (p = 0.0387). Bootstrap analysis for outbreaks the absolute maximum ambient temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.335 found significant (95% CI: 0.063-0.560) and for incident analysis found significant the average maximum temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.181 (95% CI: - 0.181-0.474). This type of analysis with other variables that could influence the presence of cases is recommended.
The Ciguatera impact the sector health and sector economic, product of significant morbidity, loss of work days, days of hospitalization and in some cases death; It also affects the economy of the Caribbean countries, who mostly depend on fishing and tourism. Climate-induced changes have been attributed to be the main drivers of the stimulation, distribution and intensification of dinoflagellates that cause of ciguatera. This study aimed to estimate the association between temperature (mean, absolute minimum, maximum absolute, minimum average, average maximum and average sea surface temperature) over the emergence of cases of ciguatera in San Andrés and Providencia. Initially was a descriptive analysis of the cases and outbreaks reported to the public health surveillance system compatible, with the case definition established in Protocol of monitoring of poisoning by toxins from marine algae and issues for the Department were. Analysis of variance and Covariance (95% confidence interval) to identify associations between outbreaks, incidents and different temperatures. Additionally the coefficient of Pearson correlation between two time series was determined (temperature vs. outbreaks and temperatures vs. incidents) and the confidence interval of 95% with Bootstrap for each. 101 cases, 21 outbreaks and 14 cases were identified. The increased frequency of outbreaks was produced by barracuda and jurel. 53% of the cases belonged to the male sex, the age group most affected was 30 to 44 years; the period of incubation between 30 minutes and 24 hours. Homes and restaurants were the places of occurrence of cases. Established an annual average incidence of 17.4 cases of ciguatera poisoning per 100 000 inhabitants. In ANOVA we identified no significant differences between monthly and annual averages of outbreaks or cases of ciguatera poisoning incident. For the ANACOVA temperatures are found significant for outbreaks environmental maximum absolute (p = 0.0254) and the environmental absolute minimum two months of delay (p = 0.0190). For the incidents was found significant the half with two months of delay sea surface temperature (p = 0.0387). Bootstrap analysis for outbreaks the absolute maximum ambient temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.335 found significant (95% CI: 0.063-0.560) and for incident analysis found significant the average maximum temperature, which shows a correlation of 0.181 (95% CI: - 0.181-0.474). This type of analysis with other variables that could influence the presence of cases is recommended.